Wine Sales When the Country Opens Up

Like most of the retail economy wineries are hurting now. What happens when the country opens up in phases? Following is some speculation by the various sales channels.

In Hong Kong. What we may be seeing soon

Online sales have been the bright spot as these sales are way up as there's pretty much no other way to get wine. While sales are up profits are not enjoying the same success as many of the wineries succeeding in online sales are eating the shipping costs and discounting the wine.
     Expect to see online sales decline over time.

Wine clubs are the bread-and-butter of many wineries as it's a steady income. Club memberships drop when the economy goes bad. This will recover as fast as our financial condition does.
     Don't expect a recovery in wine club membership and sales until the economy is back. People need jobs before they will buy a luxury good, like premium wine.

Winery tasting room visitors will probably find a much different experience. I expect the days of people lining the bar next to each other are over for awhile. And not just in tasting rooms, but in pubs and bars, too. It would seem appointments and seating tastings are going to be the only way to maintain distances between groups. There will be a matter of groups sizes as far as what's mandated by law and what each tasting room can accommodate. Not all rooms where designed with table service in mind. The number of visitors will also be determined by travel restrictions and people being comfortable with air travel and hotel stays.
     Expect overall traffic to be down until the virus is under control and the economy recovers. Even if travel recovers the number of visitors allowed in each tasting room will be lower.

Restaurants will open with fewer visitors allowed at one time to maintain distancing. Fewer patrons means less wine sold.
     This will probably be the way it is until we have a vaccine for the virus.

Retail wine sales should recover as retail establishments return to normal. The big question is the impact of the down economy.
     Not sure where retail sales at local stores will go.

Grape Growers will be hit hard because as the overall demand for wine takes a hit so will prices of grapes. There was already a temporary glut of wine in the market. For this fall, at least, it seems some growers may have a very difficult time selling their fruit.
     Big impact on growers. Not the high-end well-known guys, but the lower-end fruit for sure. This will mean some good prices for consumers.


Summary
Wine clubs, tasting room sales, and restaurant sales will all suffer while the economy is bad. How long will this last? Months? Years? Tasting rooms and restaurant sales will also be way down until there's a vaccine. Predictions say this is at least a year off.
     A number of restaurants will fail. Some wineries will close up; some will be sold. Expect lots of consolidation. A lot of the newer wineries will lots of bills will be in trouble. Smaller, older ones with lower overhead and those owned by large conglomerates have a better chance at survival.