Talking with people in wineries, who talk with other wineries, and seeing comments on social media lead me to believe the local wineries are hurting for customers. There just aren't as many people visiting. This doesn't necessarily mean revenue is similarly down, though it most likely is overall.
A more disturbing trend is that wine club membership is also down. This is a backbone of steady income for many wineries, without it, they have a hard time planning and forecasting for the next year.
What happened? Gossip follows. :)
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The post-Pandemic letdown
When people finally got out with money they hadn't spent in the past year while stuck at home, they swarmed the wineries saying, "Here, take my money!" Remember how many were overpaying for new cars? Yeah, they are underwater now as defaults and repossessions are at an all-time high. Well, nobody is getting their wine repo'ed, but they are quitting the wine clubs they jumped into to restock their cellars. That's what I did.
Wine Country prices
In Napa Valley, tasting fees skyrocketed to where a $100 to taste isn't unusual. Bottle prices are mostly above a hundred dollars. Likewise, lodging prices in NV went way up. And people were willing to pay. The key word here is were.
Other wine regions, like Sonoma, saw that and decided to jump in. Definitely not as high as Napa, but $35 to $50 tasting fees are common. Wine prices are not as high as Napa, they have never been, but Sonoma's top wine, Pinot Noir, has seen a big jump in bottle prices with many (most?) at $75-up.
Part of the pricing problem is perception, in that Napa equals California to many out-of-staters. I've seen people on social media wine groups saying they're going to Sonoma and one of their stipulations is to keep tasting fees under $100. Frankly, I don't know of any $100 tasting in Sonoma County, though it wouldn't surprise me if a few small high-end places figured why not because Napa does it.
What was a relatively inexpensive, fun way to spend an afternoon now means budgeting for the trip.
Reservations became common as a safety measure when reopening after the Pandemic, and have stuck around. I don't know if this kind of planning contributes to less foot traffic, but it won't help. Many (most?) wineries in Sonoma want walk in traffic now, but many people are assuming a reservation is required.
Have we shot ourselves in the foot with the skyrocketing prices? Yes. Some of it was called for with increased salaries and productions costs, but much of it is greed. The price increases do mean that they are making more money per visitor, and that's good for the wineries, until the visitation drops too far. Are we there yet? I think so.
Wine clubs
I mentioned another thing I heard was there is a significant drop in wine club members. With people backing off from winery visits this wouldn't be surprising, but again, some wineries have bungled this one with changing their wine club into a mailing list. The idea of a club is there are benefits for both sides. The winery buys your loyalty and future purchases with some benefits for the customer. This is in the form of discounts on wine, free tastings whenever you visit again, and often other discounts. I've seen quite a few wineries curtail or end all benefits for the buyer. This is short-sighted, IMO.
Something's gotta give.
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