There have been many American wine trends over the years. It's not as though wine fashion was invented with that organic non-alcoholic natty orange wine you're drinking.
The seminal event that kicked-started American wine was the 1976 Judgment of Paris. We'll start from there.
Wineries and the grape growers are worried. Yes, many small businesses have things to worry about. Grape growers are farmers so are always worried and the weather, government policies, and almost everything else.
Below are a few graphs on trends in wine. The first three are from the American Assoc. of Wine Economists, a world-wide organization based in New York. The last one from Gomberg-Fredrikson, of Sonoma, CA.
As temperatures warm, vineyards will have to move. Premium grapes are very susceptible to temperature changes, as each variety operates in a small window of temperatures.
Per the U.S. Dept of Agriculture (USDA), the 2024 California wine grape crush was the smallest in 25 years. Total crush size was 2.844 million tons, a 23% decline for 2023's 3.7 million tons. Average grape prices fell 5%, but the previous year was the highest ever, so not really a meaningful decline.
These numbers are state-wide. Three-fourths of California's wine grapes come from the Central Valley. Napa and Sonoma Counties are each about 4% of the state's total.
The previous post, dated Nov 19th, was on agriculture-related changes to Napa Valley over time. This one is on Sonoma County. Just like Napa, the wine grape crop has exploded in the past 60 years, figuratively, not literally. :)
Three graphs that tell a tale of trends in Napa wine. Every pictures tells a story, don't it?
What are the top concerns of 2024 for those in the wine business? Per a survey from innovint.us, the top five are:
In 2023 spirits surpassed wine in popularity in the U.S. for the first time in decades. This, according to a Gallup poll asking people what is their favorite alcoholic beverage.
The wine grape demand prior to harvest is one indicator of the health of the wine market. Most grapes are sold on contracts between the wine producers and the growers, either year-to-year or on multi-year contracts. This year shows a higher than normal quantity of unsold premium wine grapes.
There have been major changes in the way wine tasting rooms operate in the past few years. You might already know this if you've been wine tasting in a major U.S. region post-Pandemic. Even if it's been just two or three years, you'll find things settling in to a new norm.
News spreads quickly on social media. One such story that came out of the SF Chronicle is that the California wine industry is dying. They noted declining foot traffic in Napa Valley, vineyards being yanked out, and unsold bulk wine on the open market.
With all the doom and gloom around wine sales, and it's been way overstated IMO, where are the bright spots in the wine market?
Wineries are still navigating the post-pandemic world and may be making some mistakes.
There are a few post-pandemic trends in the wine business that are driving customers away, like sky-high tasting fees. There's another that may be a little harder to spot at first glance. This is wine clubs that aren't really wine clubs.
There have been several professionally written articles about the dark days ahead and plenty of Internet chatter about the coming downfall of Napa. Yes, Napa because many associate American wine with Napa Valley even though Napa only produces three to four percent of the country's wine.
Are things crashing into oblivion as anyone looking for clicks on the Internet says or is this just an adjustment?
Americans, and others, love to treat themselves. Whether it's $80 jeans or an $80 wine, we deserve it. In case you weren't aware, you are being helped in the premiumization of your consumption by those that stand to gain from it.
SALES of Sauvignon Blanc are hot, that is, you should always serve it cold. :)
Sauv Blanc trails Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Pinot Gris, and Pinot Noir in popularity in the U.S. But Sauvignon Blanc is the one gaining the most in sales (with Pinot Gris second). It seems some consumers are turning to reasonably priced crisp whites.
The vineyard folks worry about climate change, pests, water supplies and more. I figure that's okay because farmers are supposed to worry. When it comes to the future of wine sales, there's a lot of worry to go around and I'm not sure that it's all necessary.
The annual State of the US Wine Industry Report from Silicon Valley Bank is out. Shipping data will be covered in the next post. Following are highlights on the rest. Their data is based on wineries responding to a survey.
Wine consumption is down, as is winery visitation here in California. Lots of people are trying to figure out why and what to do about it. People are drinking less craft beer, too, and the Brewers Association thinks they know why. What they say closely mirrors what the wine industry is saying.
