California is responsible for 11% of total U.S. exports. After Mexico and Canada, China is the state's next largest export destination. Computer equipment is high on the list of exports with China, but so is agriculture.
Top ag exports to China are nuts (almonds, walnuts, pistachios), cotton and wine.
A decade ago California wine in China was almost non-existent. Over the past few years the state has put on a real push with the Chinese to get the state's wine on the radar. This marketing has been successful. In the past decade the value of California wine exports to China has increased 450% in value to about $200 million. China is fifth in CA wine exports (Canada is first).
What effect could the tariffs have on U.S. consumers? Taking just these ag products into consideration the prices of nuts could actually drop as demand drops. Not sure if there will be enough of an impact on wine to drop prices. With less revenue there will be less spending by farmers who depend on Chinese exports having a ripple effect on the economy. Of course, this doesn't take into account the non-agricultural items like high tech products being imported from and exported to China. Plus all the other things like higher steel prices.
This would seem to signal recession along with inflation. How strong that will be is anybody's guess. The only thing for sure is there will be no winners in the short term.
As a wise man once said, "Hold on to your butts." (Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park).
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