2021 in Wine

   Everybody likes predictions and the nice thing about them is readers forget what you predicted when it doesn't come to pass. Besides, I need a break from all the stupid crap going on now. Extrapolating from what is already going on is easier so this is more figuring out which trends stay, which ones go.

Rosé

  It seems that pink wine is here to stay for awhile. For how long? I think it depends on how the demand for more rosé is handled. If you're old enough you remember the boom in Merlot after the French Paradox on 60 Minutes. Demand far outstripped supply and producers started making some really lousy Merlot. Consumers eventually caught on and decided that all Merlot was shit and the grape never fully recovered. So we'll see if rosé goes down the same path.

Napa and the other premium wine regions of California

The welcome sign might be singed,
but they're still open

  Covid and then wildfires put a real dent in winery traffic, of course. What's the perception once businesses and travel open back up? Is Napa off many people's list as a travel destination? BTW, many other parts of the state may suffer from the wildfires as some out-of-state people will think the whole state burnt. Have people gotten into the routine of just ordering wines online from trusted sources rather than having any interest in traveling to these areas to find new favorites? These are the questions on the minds of those in the wine and hospitality biz. A huge part of California's economy depends on visitors, whether they're coming for wine or other things. 

  I believe there are a lot of people wanting to get back on the road and we could see a surge of visitors in the last part of the year. This surge could be driven by younger folks as they seem to want to get out and socialize even now, before things are safe. There are travel experts worrying that the field will never recover, but I don't believe that'll be a problem.

  The good news for Napa and Sonoma is their visitors are mostly from the Bay Area. The tech economy is still fine and people living nearby realize that the state's wineries did not burn down. Most of those visitors are day-trippers so this doesn't help the hotel industry.

What price range will sell?

  What price ranges of wines will sell the best when things up back up? When the economy is down like it is now less expensive wines usually do better. As things improve the mid-range premium wines sell better. If it is younger folks leading the charge back to the tasting rooms they will expect less expensive offerings as they are not the demographic buying higher-end wines.

Online wine purchasing

  Yeah, it's big because people have no choice except maybe the supermarket. This will probably fall somewhat as people visit wineries instead, but should level off at a higher level than pre-Covid. Heck, I'm having fun buying from out-of-state wineries that I would never visit (Michigan Riesling, anyone?). 

 One thing that would be great to come out of this would be to open up shipping. There are still too many states with restrictive rules.

Wineries for sale

  The Covid economy has hurt lots of businesses and wineries are no exception. More will sell to larger companies. Gallo has just completed a huge buy of wine labels from Constellation Brands (the sale started pre-Covid) and that won't be good for the overall wine market in many states.

Or

  2021 could go to shit with roving bands of Covid zombies running through the streets. And that will be a problem as there are already a lack of guns and ammo available in the stores. Crap, might as well drink up all that expensive stuff you've been holding!