A Shift in Wine Regions

Wine grapes are the canary in the coal mine when it comes to growing crops on a warming planet. Wines, especially premium wine grapes, grow in narrow bands that are largely climate-based. It's not just heat, but cold, rainy seasons, wind, length of the growing season, and sunlight that play a factor in wine grape quality.

 

Lake Oroville in northern CA supplies much of the state's
agriculture with water. Picture from April 2021 when the
water level should be up to the tree line

What happens to the West Coast where most American wines come from? For regions that are already hot this will be a big issue. California's Central Valley is a hot, dry agricultural area home to 80% of the state's wine grapes where most of the inexpensive wines come from. So, yeah, Gallo could be in trouble. 

Other, small micro-climate areas that grow warm weather fruit like Cabernet Sauvignon might also be out of the grape growing business -- or at least out of the Cabernet business. This includes much of Napa. Interestingly, the southern part of Napa is nearer water and is cooler so maybe a lot of the Cabernet just migrates down a few miles.

Next door in Sonoma County where there are many variable pockets of different weather during the growing season things may get complicated. Perhaps much of the Russian River Valley, known for Chardonnay and Pinot Noir, becomes the home of Cabernet and Zinfandel. And Pinot Noir moves closer to the coast.

However, it probably won't be that easy. As average global temps rise it isn't just a straight temperature change. There's weather variability, rain patterns, lowland flooding, some places may actually be cooler, and who knows what else. California premium grape growing regions are blessed with warm, sunny summer days, cool nights, and almost all the rain coming in the winter while the vines are dormant -- ideal for growing consistently great wine grapes. Right now it looks like there might be less water to go around as the state has been in a drought cycle for a decade now. Luckily, grapes can grow with less water, but farming will have to change, and those changes won't be free.

In Oregon, the Willamette is famous for Pinot Noir, but maybe it'll be switching to warmer weather grapes. In eastern Washington, known for Cabernet and Syrah, it's likely vineyards will move to higher elevations. 

All through the West there are small micro-climates known for one or two certain grape varieties. The hottest ones may no longer support grape growing. The other ones may switch to different varieties. New areas may start supporting wine grapes. Maybe Idaho becomes a new, big wine region. Or maybe Mendocino and Humboldt Counties on California's North Coast. Lots of opportunities, maybe. Lots of expensive changes, certainly.

The next few decades will be interesting and expensive for grape growers.