What Segments of the Wine Market ARE Growing?

With all the doom and gloom around wine sales, and it's been way overstated IMO, where are the bright spots in the wine market?

This part of the market is definitely growing.
A nonalcoholic sparkling rosé made from wine and fruit juice.
image from drinkproxies.com

The U.S. wine industry generates more than a $100 billion across its 11,000 wineries. So whatever happens to the market is a big deal to many.

The lower cost and specialized side of the wine market

At the lower end of the price scale, convenience wines, as in cans, is up. Prosecco sales, inexpensive Italian bubbles, have been increasing for a while now. On the healthy side, anything that says low alcohol, along with wines labeled organic or sustainably farmed and the like. 

Some of these are niche areas of the market, so any increase in percentage will look better than actual market share. Wine marketing types see the opportunity for large growth with low or no alcohol wines. All that needed for these wines is a product that has the body of and tastes like wine IMO. It may happen, it may not, but never underestimate science when there's money to be made.

Forecasts and trends

Most wineries are actually optimistic and predict increased sales this year and next. Only a small percentage expect lower revenue. The over $10 wine market is expecting some growth, while the over $50 wine is forecasting the best growth. Yes, the over $50 wines that Napa makes are selling well.

The push by many is to increase direct-to-consumer purchases to visitors and through their wine club, rather than rely on the wholesale/retail market. I expect most of these wineries are the smaller ones who find it difficult to wrestle shelf space from the big corporate wineries.

"Fake news" on the failing American wine market

There has been plenty published on the younger folks not drinking as much wine as the older generations. Plus, a news article has recently made the rounds saying California has more grapes planted than they have a market for. These are bits of truth to them, but aren't true in the broad sense.

The Boomers supported a boom in wine sales for several generations. It looks like that will be leveling off. That doesn't mean the wine market is dead.

Any time a vineyard gets pulled out now, it makes the news. Well, vineyards are always being pulled out, maybe because it's a marginal vineyard that isn't growing good enough wine grapes, the vineyards are old, or it's a varietal nobody wants. In these cases, it's not economically feasible to keep the vineyard, so it is torn out and usually replanted.

The overall wine market is quite healthy.

Some of the above data from a BMO wine market report of May 2024