Tourism is Down in Sonoma/Napa

Yes, we had the infamous Wine Country Fires about a year ago. On the news it appeared the whole place burned to the ground. A few wineries, restaurants, and hotels were affected, but the vast majority are just fine. But the perception is there and a lower number of visitors was expected for this year.

The busy tourist season actually started out just fine earlier this year then the Mendocino/Lake County fires happened. Those were in the counties to the north of Sonoma and Napa. Maybe even the Redding fire, nearly 200 miles away caused people to stay away. The only affect was smokey skies on some days. But it may be when the new fires started up many people said, "That's it. We're not going anywhere near that."

One year ago vs today

Or is it something else? The growth rate has been leveling off, but the local tourist economy has been increasing yearly since the end of the Great Recession. With the booming economy I've noticed a few things happening: 

• Many tasting rooms went to appointment only, at least on weekends, for crowd control.
• Tasting fees increased. In Sonoma most still seem to be about $15, but there are a lot more $25 ones. Napa probably averages about twice the Sonoma rate.
• Wine prices have definitely gone up. It's not just $100 Napa Cabernets as other wines have hit some high prices. You don't have to look too far in Sonoma County to find $75 Pinot Noir or Chardonnay; or $50 Zinfandel.
• Lodging prices seem really high compared to a few years ago. Many are over $300/night.

You can say this is all from supply-and-demand, but demand is down in 2018. Lodging prices are holding high because lots of rooms were going to people displaced by the fire and now to people working on the rebuild, contractors from out of the area and such. 

The big question is, will the downturn be a short-term thing or longer-term? If it's a year or two phenomena then this is probably fire-related and there's not a whole lot we can do except put out more marketing blurbs and wait it out. If this is more permanent then there are some changes needed. I'm guessing it's the fires, but we'll see.