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Monday, May 3, 2021

Sonoma County's Economy

  Sonoma County is doing better than the rest of the state and is predicted to recover faster. The local economy is largely tourism-based and it's hoped this will recover this summer. There are numerous ads from businesses hiring for hospitality jobs.

  At the end of 2020 unemployment was 6.5%, Napa was 7.2%, California 9%, and the U.S. was about 6.7%. Almost 90% of Sonoma's job losses were public-facing. Over a third were leisure / hospitality type jobs, a surprising quarter were government jobs (I don't have a breakdown of what those were). Retail sales were "just" 13% of the loses with the rest education/child care and other service jobs.

  Passenger arrivals at the local Sonoma County airport were down more than half from a year earlier. A lot of West Coast travelers are from Asia, especially China, and that's at zero now. A few wineries are actually very dependent on Chinese visitors.

  As of April 2021 Sonoma and Napa have recovered most of the jobs lost. The leisure / hospitality sector is getting staffed up now to be ready for a normal summer season. Like everywhere, brick-and-mortar jobs are not recovering as quickly and may never come all the way back if consumers keep shopping on the Internet.

  Let's hope we are over the hump with no more surprises and business picks up quickly. The state plans to fully reopen mid-June. Exactly what will that look like? I believe it means just about every indoor business will be open though all may not be at 100% capacity. Masks will be required in some public settings. It's not clear if some businesses may require a vaccination card or a negative test. For instance, the Golden State Warriors started letting fans back in at 1/3 capacity with proof of vaccination of a negative test. For those ordering tickets online ahead of time they are even sending a home testing kit along with the tickets.

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