BMO 2026 Wine Market Report

BMO bank's commercial sector keeps an eye on the state of the booze business. Some highlights from this year's wine report.

News on 2025's Napa Pickett Fire

The August 2025 Pickett Fire started in a remote area of rugged terrain outside of Calistoga in Napa Valley. There had been a party on the Hundred Acre Winery property. The fire took two weeks to contain. Homes were lost, wineries and vineyards were damaged, people, including firefighters were injured.

A Facebook Tidbit You May Not Know

In January 2026, Facebook changed the way their algorithm works for recommendations. They are restricting alcohol-related businesses, like wineries and wine retailers.You can still see the pages if you search them out, but FB will no longer proactively suggest them under "Pages you may like," for instance.

Alcohol is bad, though apparently not bad enough to implement this on Instagram. FB offered no explanation or no rule changes.

I suppose this goes along with the genius move of being able to only see about five of your 200 FB friends. 

Sonoma/Napa Winery News

 Current happenings, mostly related to the slowdown in wine visitation.

The Coming Weird Wine Grape Harvest

Mother Nature controls much of what happens in agriculture, and wine grapes are especially finicky. Harvest timelines and fruit quality vary based on weather and peoples' decisions. The 2026 spring weather was most unusual and that's going to have an impact.

2026 Direct-To-Consumer Wine Report

Silicon Valley Bank's yearly report is a benchmark on the current state of the American wine industry. They put out two major annual reports, The State of the U.S. Wine Industry, and this one, the Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Wine Report. Direct-to-consumer and wholesale are the channels for a winery to sell product. DTC means they get to keep all the profit, wholesale means it's shared with the wholesalers and retailers.

Dining Out is not as Popular as it Once Was

About 20% of U.S. wine is sold to restaurants generating at least 40% of sales in dollar value, because of restaurant mark-ups. There's bad news on that front as inflation eats into people's eating out habits.

Sonoma/Napa Recent News

Recent winery-related happenings in Sonoma and Napa County.

Wine Regions Experiencing Growth

It's not entirely doom and gloom for the American wine biz. There are areas that are adding vineyards and have new wineries planned. Here's a few of them.

Wine Industry Report for 2026

The Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division puts out an annual report on the financial state of the American wine industry. The data comes from wineries returning a survey of their past year's performance. Their State of the US Wine Industry report is required reading for many in the wine business. Below are a few key points. Go here and click on Download Now to see the full report.

Top Wine Stories of 2025

Welcome to 2026. We made it! Following are some of last year's big stories relating to the U.S. alcohol industry.

Wine Spectator's Top 100

Wine Spectator magazine puts out an annual Top 100 list based on wines they've tasted in the past year. Rankings are based on quality, value, and availability. Sonoma County did well this year.

Unsold Grapes, Vines Pulled Out

It was a tough year for grape growers. Not just a cyclical "normal" tough year, but really tough. The following is taken from an 11/12/25 article by Sarah Doyle in the Santa Rosa Press Democrat that is only available to subscribers. I'll hit a few highlights while trying not to plagiarize.   :)

The 2025 Grape Harvest Wraps Up

It's just about the end of the harvest for everyone, though there's still plenty to do in the cellar. So, how do things looks this year for North Coast wine grapes?

Who Controls Wine (Plus Beer and Spirits) Availability?

Like many businesses, the alcohol biz tries to exert control over the country's laws that affect their bottom line through lobbies and contributions. You can blame them, as alcohol in the U.S. has a ton of federal, state, and county rules on what you can do.

One segment outspends everyone else by a large margin. 

Air Travel Into Sonoma County

Southwest Airlines has just announced upcoming service to STS, Sonoma County's commercial airport. SW will be offering flights to and from Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Burbank. Vegas and San Diego will be daily. Ticketing is available now, but the flights don't begin until April 2026.

Currently, Alaska Airlines has the most flights to STS with Los Angeles, Orange County, Burbank, Las Vegas, San Diego, Palm Springs (seasonal), Portland, and Seattle routes. 

American Airlines has service to Dallas and Phoenix. 

You may see mention of Avelo Airlines flights to STS, but they have pulled out, and good riddance. 

BTW, the nearest winery tasting room to the airport terminal is less than three miles.  :) 

Wineries Moving Into Distillation

 If you can't beat 'em ...

Agrivoltaics

An issue with solar panel fields is the amount of land they can take up. You've maybe seen solar panels over parking lots. What if you could put them on farmland?

Agrivoltaics is using solar panels in conjunction with farming to turn the shade from the panels into a positive. A positive, get it? I'm pretty charged by the potential here.

Spotted Lanternflies, Just What the West Coast Doesn't Need

The invasive plant-hopping Spotted Lanternfly, indigenous to Asia, has made its way to the eastern U.S., probably via a cargo ship from Asia in 2012 into Philadelphia. It has since migrated into 19 eastern states. It will eventually hop a train, or some other mode of transportation, to the rest of the country.

Its reproductive rate and ability to live off of many plants, makes it is unlikely that we can eradicate the Lanternfly. This is bad news.

Wine Industry: "The Sky is Falling"

Not quite. 

This has been seen before, and the wine industry recovered, usually to get even bigger than before. That doesn't mean it'll be a quick downturn. Will it be a year, will it be a decade (jeez, I hope not)?